Ukraine Diplomacy By Putin , but beware a trap
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The United States says Russia will attack Ukraine this month. Russia says it did not intend to attack. EU and NATO leaders negotiate an end to the war. What is happening on the Ukrainian border?
Russia has surrounded Ukraine with munitions. They have deployed more than a million troops and their ammunition along Ukraine's north, east, south and southwest borders. The largest deployment since World War II. If not for war then why this? This is the question that Western nations are asking Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin does not give a clear answer. With that, the United States and its allies came under the protection of Ukraine. The conflict was intense. Russia's position is that Western nations are aggressive.
History of the Occupation
It takes four centuries to understand why Putin is treating Ukraine this way. To the time of Sir Emperor Peter the Great, the founder of the Russian Empire. Russia has seen Europe's expansionism as a major threat ever since. There is a reason for that. Sweden, a major European power, invaded Russia in 1709. Emperor Peter drove out the Swedish army. Since then, there have been one invasion attempt each century. In 1812 Napoleon's' large army arrived from France and encamped in Moscow. But the Russians retreated, unable to withstand the winter. Hitler was the next invading hero. During World War II, Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. The German army fought to capture it and the Soviet army fought to hold on. Tens of thousands of lives were lost. With this in mind, it was time for the next invasion. Putin fears that this time it will be in the form of NATO.
'NATO' fear
NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A military alliance formed in 1949 by 12 nations, including the United States, Britain, France, and Canada. Other founding members are Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal. NATO's principle is that each member state will assist each other in the event of an armed attack. The real purpose of NATO was to prevent the Soviet Union from expanding into Europe after World War II.
To counter NATO, the Soviet Union formed a military alliance with the communist countries of Eastern Europe in 1955, the Warsaw Treaty Organization (Warsaw Pact). But in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. The Warsaw Pact was broken. By then an agreement had been reached between the then Soviet-American presidents; That NATO will not add members from Eastern Europe. NATO did not keep that word. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it granted membership to many of the independent countries. NATO, which had only 16 countries at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, has 30 members. The newcomers are Croatia and Albania, who joined in 2009. Putin fears that Ukraine, Georgia and other neighboring countries will join NATO. If that happens, it will be easier for NATO and the Western powers, which are already on Russia's doorstep, to get inside. Stop it at any cost. That is the bargain with Ukraine.
Why Ukraine
Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union, has been moving closer to Europe and Western powers for some time. Ukraine's president in 2013 was pro - Russian Viktor Yanukovych. He abandoned the final stages of the trade agreement that would bring Ukraine closer to the European Union. Anti-Russian Ukrainians took to the streets to protest, saying he was under Putin's pressure. Yanukovych was out. Western powers also played a role. Soon after, Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and occupied Crimea. Crimea was ceded to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet ruler Nikita Khrushchev.
Following the incident, separatists declared the Donbass in eastern Ukraine a self-proclaimed republic. Russia supported them. At least 14,000 people have been killed in clashes between the Ukrainian government and separatists. The ceasefire was signed in 2014 and '15 in Minsk, Belarus, through agreements signed between Russia and Ukraine. But the agreement was not fully complied with.
The occupation of Crimea and the ensuing conflict brought Ukraine closer to the Western world. Conducted military exercises with NATO. Purchased military equipment from member states of the United States and Turkey. Ukraine is a NATO partner. This means that it is a country that may be eligible to join in the future. This is what makes Putin uneasy.
Putin's needs
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who is the current president of Russia. He has been serving in this position since 2012, and he previously held this office from 1999 until 2008. He was also the prime minister from 1999 to 2000, and again from 2008 to 2012.
Putin's main demand is that Russia's neighbors not join NATO. He needs legal assurance in this regard. The NATO deployment should be reduced to the level of the 1990s, when it had only 16 members. Do not install ballistic missiles in member states that are fast approaching Russia. Military cooperation with Ukraine and former Soviet member states should be curtailed, but the United States is unwilling to guarantee NATO membership as Russia demands. The United States and NATO have said that Ukraine, an independent sovereign state, will decide on its own.
Peace efforts
The United States and Britain are sending more troops to Eastern Europe. NATO countries Poland, Czech Republic, Latvia and Lithuania have provided or promised Ukraine munitions. Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands sent ships and warplanes to the Black Sea. However, none of these countries has sent troops to Ukraine. Most European countries are not interested in open warfare. Germany's dependent on Russia for fuel is at the forefront of the war. European leaders are in talks with Russia and the United States to ease tensions. French President Emmanuel Macron visits Putin in Russia France says Putin has assured Macron that he will not send more troops to the border. However, Russia's correction is that there is no such understanding. German Chancellor Olaf Scholes arrives in Washington to meet with US President Joe Biden. The meeting comes amid criticism of Germany's lack of interest in confronting Russia. Scholes is reported to have promised to abide by the sanctions imposed by Russia, except for the cancellation of the natural gas pipeline project (Nord Stream-2).
China and India
China is with Russia in the Ukraine crisis. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said that Russia's security concerns are justified and should be taken seriously. Ukraine crisis China did not approve the resolution to be discussed in the Security Council. However, the US-led resolution was passed. India, unable to confront Russia and the United States, abstained. The crisis was requested to be resolved through discussion. If war breaks out or the current situation continues, India will face many difficulties. Delivery of S-400 missile defense system from Russia will be delayed. The chances of getting a discount from the US to buy this are slim. Conflict will push up oil prices. If there is a war, it will affect Indians, including students in Ukraine.
Putin looking at the weather
The United States says Russia is ready to launch an offensive against Ukraine in the coming weeks. Preparations for the open war are 70 percent complete. By the middle of this month, the snow in Ukraine will have hardened. This will benefit the movement of military vehicles. The U.S. includes that Putin is waiting for that.
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